BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests somewhat and I enjoy the new choice of contests and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy and $30k belongs to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $30k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of drama into money games.
Cash Game play of the week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m really not loving this slate for money games, and that I was only going to decide on the principal occasion stack for my cash game play of this week. But, I will see the major event just scoring ~100 total points and once I am stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the pile and I believe Shane Young makes a fantastic money game play. I don’t understand how large of a ceiling he has because I do believe this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting finished. I believe he’s a high floor because this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I think he’s the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this battle with a combination of striking and wrestling. I do think he’s 100-point upside in a decision, and that I also think he could complete this battle. However, I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that’s why he’s my cash game play of this week instead of my GPP play. GPP play of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He must be the far superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the toes as well. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does possess heavy power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 points, but this is exactly why he’s my GPP play of the week and not my money game play of this week. In money, I want to lock in higher floors and that is not what we have here. I like this more for GPPs because when he loses at $9.4k it will not matter how many points he’s, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we could still come off with a profit if he dropped a decision at that price and scored 30-40 points, we’d just need to hit our other spots. We don’t need 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the chance on a 0 there because he’s 100+ upside since he is going to be the fighter wanting to grapple and I could see him becoming multiple takedowns as well as a submission. I think he has a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to stand too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot from a big name who might be more popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I am actually picking Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this struggle to stay position for as long as it lasts. Personally, I see this going the distance and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is true, then I think Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs since he’ll have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a fair number of shots. In addition, I think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not place him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or conclusion, he will probably be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That is why he’s my underdog drama of the week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to remain on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I have chosen him as my fade each time he’s fought so I will roll with it again. The design Alvey brings to the table is simply not beneficial for DraftKings. The only way Alvey could score tremendously is by obtaining a knockout win. He fails to strike a high enough pace to score highly in a decision and he won’t be going for almost any takedowns. Even if he receives a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that may not be adequate to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x from a fighter when I roster them and with his $7.9k price label, that means I want at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)